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Stefan betting advice

Октябрь 2, 2012

stefan betting advice

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And it usually has elements of a political deal, you know, who who has power, who makes decisions. You know, it could be through democracies, but in all kinds of ways, because, you know, certain democracies, money plays a bigger role than in other places. Think of China. Within the Communist Party, there are certain checks and balances. So so how the political deal is shaped is one part, but it usually also implies an economic deal and a basically the way groups can access to the state or to the resources of the country at a distribution.

And of course, you could have a lot of different forms that this political economic deal takes. And, you know, we have names often for it. For it. You know, we could we could talk about capitalist societies where essentially there is limited balance on on once you have capital, you can keep on accumulating it, which means in our societies, even the 13th century, my ancestors happened to be a knights that was good friends with the king.

I probably am still rich today and I have inheritance laws that protect that accumulation of wealth in that capitalist society. We look very differently. Of course, you can also have kleptocracy where the whole state is focussed on stealing from everyone around it and stashing the money away to serve a very small number of people.

Or you could have more clientelist societies, where the state fundamentally becomes a job creating scheme and a rent sharing scheme for those who help you in power and keep your power. So you could have a whole range of societies. And I think actually, you know, I come from Belgium. I think all these features apply to, to, to, to society.

There is somewhere or another a complexity. Now, how does it relate with other approaches? Of course. It has lots of lots of links to it. You know, the study of elite bargains probably predates works on some of the political settlements. I know a lot of the work in political settlements brings the economic and politics closely together. And by using that bargain language, I probably want to allude a bit more to this potential instability than needs to rekeep on recreating it. It needs to be recreated it all the time and it shifts all the time a little bit, not least when it comes down to probably what is the core thesis of my book is say, you know, we need a particular type of elite bargaining to get development, which is actually one that really values as a key feature of the elite bargin, growth and development.

And now I call that view gambling on development because any elite that settles on that, that is clearly quite a gamble because it will unleash political dynamics where new elites will emerge, existing elites fear the threats and so it requires this kind of dynamic view of it that actually, wow, the country is and succeeds in keeping that together and succeeding in it. I actually have quite a lot of admiration for, because for most elites, the status quo is probably the safest place to be.

Sophie van Huellen Excellent. And moving on from the elite bargain to, so a lot of the discussion is within countries, within economies or nation states. Now, you alluded to successful bargains, but also these can fail. Now, looking at the global challenges that we face, such as climate change. How do we think of a political or political bargain or any elite bargain that would help us address global challenges such as this?

And, you know, however much admiration I have of countries that settle in an elite bargain for growth and development. And they are I mean, the good news here is that the more and more countries doing this and quite unlikely countries, you know, I in the book, I talk quite I have a chapter on Bangladesh which I find such a great example because my very first essay in Development Economics had a title, and this would be talking about the early s.

And of course, I answered, Yes, it is. Nothing will ever come from Bangladesh. Now, of course, it proves us totally wrong. And I think more and more countries try this out. They gamble on it. You know, can Bangladesh renew its elite bargaining is another issue. And yeah, but that gives me optimism for places like that. You refer to it. But actually the political deal is very fragile for all kinds of reasons, including, you know, losing support in the urban areas on a political level.

They gamble on development very much so. They go for growth and development in a very big way. But actually, the political deal, the underlying political deal proves to be too fragile. And if we think of the conflicts since , you know, these were people that were definitely in an elite bargain in In fact, there were all the different opposing parties in the conflict essentially were in the same government running the country together as a coalition of power.

So it can go wrong now. Now we go to global parts. So so where I get pessimistic is that, you know, if if you have governments and I name a few that are not impressing me, let me put it mildly. But of course, I talk about the poorest countries here. The ones that we really need for these global deals are probably the emerging economies, which already have a much higher carbon footprint trajectories and so on.

Now, it will be slow and it will be too slow. And the one thing it will definitely be simply by referring to all. But they all signed up to the SDGs and everything is fine because the problem with these kind of declarations, they are not a global elite bargain. For those for or for those who have signed up to it, and they really want development in their countries.

But look, the way rich countries have played this game is quite awful. So, you know, if we have not play totally fairly, how can we expect emerging economies and developing countries to really, totally embrace it? But it will have to happen. But it will be, unfortunately, later than It should happen.

Sophie van Huellen Going back to maybe a more positive note, which is the success stories that you talk about in your book. And a lot of focus is on the experimental side so that no one has the blueprint. Now, that contrast quite a bit with the aid regime that we currently have and not only aid, also lending conndition and so forth, which are usually tied to what you referred to as the list of silver bullets, which of course, no solution fits, fits all.

And these countries that you referred to as success stories that all have a gradual experimental approach. How did the two go together? What needs to change in aid and also properly international borrowing to support such approaches? Stefan Dercon So, yeah. When a country general is trying to embark on on development.

You know, we should learn to trust them that they want to do this. I mean, we can help them as well. So I think Indonesia played that game game very well. There are repeated elections, presidential elections have allowed us to also have some of these corrections, where I think definitely the previous government was essentially after also mismanagement of the economy also kicked out and it provides another way of correction.

So the learning and correction can come in all kinds of ways. Because of this, Dercon argues that donors should be ready and willing to put financial and technical resources behind the elements of the elite bargain that are developmental, to help sustain them. This puts the onus on them to keep a close eye on how the elite bargain evolves—not just through electoral politics, but in how the most powerful actors in the private sector, among government bureaucrats and the military engage with each other.

But this suggests two problems: how do we identify a nascent elite bargain? And how do donors keep tabs on the workings of the elite? But I would argue as Dercon does that donors should invest in this sort of local knowledge, through staffing, longer postings, and simply incentivizing staff to engage carefully with local actors.

Outsiders need to gamble too One of the more compelling aspects of the development bargains theory is that they are gambles for domestic actors: there is no guarantee of rewards or success. But one of the implications of this is that outsiders who want to support a development bargain are also taking a gamble. They must first take a bet on whether a development bargain exists at all. And then, if they correctly diagnose the existence of a such a bargain, they need to gamble again by putting money behind it to accelerate progress, even into activities such as policy advice and attempts to change and improve economic management with uncertain prospects of success.

This double gamble is a very different approach to the general trend in how donors operate. Support to economic reform may be good money after bad where kleptocracy and a terrible business environment is the game of the elite, aimed to raise the barriers to entry and maximise short term pay-offs to those on the inside, but may have a multiplicative effect on development and growth when a development bargain is in place.

This suggests that at least part of donor portfolios should be devoted not to things that work broadly in a range of contexts, but to things that only work when a development bargain exists, if you think one is in the ascendancy. If the elites in a country are taking a long term bet on development, donors should be willing to match them, even at the risk of the bargain collapsing and achieving little. Bet on bureaucrats Gambling on Development is littered with stories about brilliant bureaucrats who manage to navigate complex elite bargains in such a way as to push for genuinely good economic and development outcomes, even if this is just to keep disaster just at bay.

All of these policymakers combined technical brilliance with the ability to navigate their political environment; they understood the deals in place, where progress could be pushed, and how to push it. There is another book to be written about how to be a great policy adviser in messy circumstances, one with relevance to literally every country in the world. But the implications for development actors are more immediate.

They should bet on the right people as well as betting on good systems building. In the interim, finding the bureaucrats and teams that work and that have the ear of those in power but want to push for sensible economic policies that support growth and development is valuable, even if this means making compromises on the way. This has some kinship with the idea that to help programmes bed down and succeed, a local champion is needed ; but it goes beyond this too, since this backing should be independent on any specific set of policies or programmes the donor is pushing.

Think carefully about support for the places left behind One question the book never fully answers is how best to respond in places where no development bargain is in place, but no humanitarian crisis is unfolding; the places that are stable, poor, and in stasis.

This is a particularly tricky question. One argument is that any support, including that directly delivered to the poor simply provides an excuse for the elite bargain to ignore them, or even worse directly props up anti-developmental elites. Even worse, does it help sustain non-developmental bargains? Does this mean that donors should be more sparing in their support? It's not clear what the correct approach is.

And there is a question of where the marginal dollar should go. If a development bargain is genuinely struck, and good technocrats are in place, is it grant aid that should be provided?

Stefan betting advice uk football betting predictions


Philadelphia should be too much to handle at home coming off a bye against a Kenny Pickett-led offense still trying to find its rhythm. It seems blasphemous that we would support fading Aaron Rodgers as one of our safest plays in a survivor pool, but the Packers have done nothing to inspire confidence this season. Green Bay is off to its worst start since and is already tied for its most losses in a season under Matt LaFleur.

As a result, the Cowboys are the most vulnerable of the top three favorites this week. While we love the Eagles and Bills off bye weeks, we are less sold on the Vikings off a bye against the Cardinals. Arizona has its best perimeter weapon back in the fold in DeAndre Hopkins, and it is only a matter of time before he and Kyler Murray lead this offense to new heights.

Wait for a better spot to use Minnesota in survivor pools. While Marcus Mariota is coming off his fourth straight game with fewer than passing yards, the Falcons represent a solid contrarian play against a Panthers team that has won just four times in 21 games.

Carolina is against the division, but if you want to save the better teams for later in the season in your survivor pools, Atlanta is worth the risk as a contrarian play. They often place their bets without the correct information. Finding good odds with help you make the best NFL picks today. These odds and spreads for NFL betting come from factors like: The recent performance of both teams How individual players are competing Injury and suspension reports The stadium for the game, including the turf quality and the potential weather conditions Prior matchups between these teams, especially for divisional games Our team at SportsTips will help you see what the best NFL odds are from many sportsbooks.

We include details on the odds individual sportsbooks have for every game, plus the lines and other values they are projecting. We provide regular updates to highlight the latest reports from many sportsbooks, which helps since the lines can change even minutes before a match begins. The NFL playoff odds will change based on who is playing and how well the players are competing.

You can use our data at SportsTips to help you make the best choices on what NFL playoff picks you will complete. We find details on reports from sportsbooks large and small to help you see where you should place your NFL picks during the playoffs.

Visit our page on how NFL odds work to learn more. With there being up to sixteen contests in a week, it can be overwhelming to figure out what NFL picks you should make for the week. Sometimes the NFL betting odds can be highly lopsided, but they can also be close. A match between the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams might feature a line for both teams.

Our experts at SportsTips will inform you of the best odds for the week. Some players will be on the rise, while others might fall off the board. We will provide details on who we feel will win and how the games will pan out. You can reach our score projections, plus our explanations for why we feel these games will turn out as they will. We will give you the best unbiased NFL predictions throughout the season.

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This is important information because it shows how the team has performed in relation to how they are valued by the market. In this case, it may be a good move to go with the underdog. Always take a look at recent trends in relation to the point spread. Moneylines First, determine your projected winner of the game when looking at NFL moneyline odds. You can opt to parlay such a heavy favorite with another team as a way of lowering your risk. There are upsets virtually every week of the NFL season, so this can be a great way to find value.

This could be a great way to find a team that is undervalued by the market. For example, early in the season, the Bengals were not properly valued by oddsmakers. This gave bettors a terrific opportunity to capitalize on an undervalued team by taking them to win outright earlier in the year. The key is to identify a team that may be better than public perception. Totals Deciding whether you want to bet Over or Under the number is based on a few factors.

You first want to check in to see the pace of each team. Offenses that move quickly can run off more plays, which leads to more scoring opportunities. Those that slow the game down lean well to the Under. If you notice that the projected total does not align with how each offense plays, this is a great way to find an edge. For example, the Ravens and Browns may have had a For example, you may see that a game between the Jets and Texans has a While both offenses were atrocious last year, turnovers could lead to good field position and kill your Under.

Parlays Parlays can be appealing because of the potential payouts, but be sure to limit your risk with this bet type because of its low probability. You can devote a small percentage of your typical bet size to a longshot parlay if you want to try to hit a home run. I would also suggest going with safer parlays that include a few heavy favorites as a way to cover any potential losses from lower probability wagers.

Remember, touchdowns mostly result in seven points and field goals are three points. This means that we generally have a few common final scores. This is great for a seven-point teaser because I bring them down to -1, which means they no longer need to win by two scores. Conversely, if I teased the Chiefs down from Props The best way to target props betting is by focusing on player-based outcomes. You also want to pay attention to the projected game script.

This is especially useful for running backs. For example, if the Titans are 7. Instead, you want to focus on a pick with a potentially high payout. Try to look for undervalued players who have a much better implied probability than what their moneyline suggests. For example, if you took the Bengals to win the Super Bowl last year, you would have gotten terrific value, perhaps as high as to You could have bet on the Rams on the moneyline to guarantee a profit regardless of the final result.

This will give you hedging opportunities down the road. Fixtures, rankings, history, tennis tournaments. Tennis Picks provide absolutely free predictions for tennis on court. Detailed betting tips. Our Tennis betting experts have you covered if you're looking for a bet on Tennis!

Our service is also called best tennis tips for free. Tennis, original name lawn tennis, game in which two opposing players singles or pairs of players doubles use tautly strung rackets to hit a ball of specified size, weight, and bounce over a net on a rectangular court. Points are awarded to a player or team whenever the opponent fails to correctly return the ball within the prescribed dimensions of the court.

Organized tennis is played according to rules sanctioned by the International Tennis Federation ITF , the world governing body of the sport. Tennis is played by people over the world as a great form of exorcize and recreation.

There are also many levels of professional play in tournaments around the world. There are four top tournaments called the Grand Slam Tournaments. Millions of people watch these tournaments making tennis a great spectator sport as well. Recently, tennis was added to the Olympics as an official sport.

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