The winner will serve in Congress for only a few months before the fall midterm elections scramble the map — and the ballot — for the seat in the next two years. Still, the national significance of the race has invited attention. Sean Patrick Maloney, who represents a nearby district, is downplaying expectations for his party, saying the 19th Congressional District is a "very conservative part of New York. A recent Democratic campaign committee poll provided to NBC News found Ryan trailing Molinaro by 3 points, within the reported margin of sampling error.

Democratic leaders have been wary of projecting confidence in the closing stretch, instead pitching themselves as underdogs. But Republicans are also downplaying expectations, worried about voter turnout on their side. Although the congressional map will change in the Nov.

It includes liberal enclaves like Kingston and Woodstock, along with rural conservative areas. West Tyrone : West Tyrone is generally a nationalist stronghold and I have no reason s to believe that a similar outcome will not occur this time around. SF could likely field four candidates within West Tyrone and return all Four. Although Daniel McCrossan was the fourth elected in , I believe he will get the fifth seat this time with a reduced vote share.

Upper Bann : Upper Bann is quite divided but slightly more unionist. You either love or hate her. It will be interesting to see how Eoin Tennyson Alliance gets on. To be honest, the majority of the citizens within North Down tend to be more liberal and the Greens have held a seat in North Down from I expect Rachel Woods to be elected with ease as well as Andrew Muir. The North Down citizen also tend to be fairer towards candidates rather than a specific party, therefore Alex Easton will likely generate lots of 2nd and 3rd preference votes.

Eugene Reid will be an interesting candidate to follow. Liz Kimmins [SF] will win seat number five. In theory, this is practically a no contest Area. Mid Ulster : As you can clearly see from the image [above], there are candidates from every party within Northern Ireland contesting the constituency.

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The district has tracked the national mood in recent elections: President Joe Biden won it by about 2 points in after Donald Trump and Barack Obama carried it in their winning campaigns.

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